In its 2008 Failed States Index, Somalia came in at No.1 (no surprises), and Uganda, came in at No.16! And we are in good company: 14. Haiti, 15. North Korea, tied 16th with Ethiopia, 18. Lebanon, 19. Nigeria.
Our Neighbours rank better: Kenya 26, Tanzania 75, Rwanda 42.
How did we sink so far down the food chain? The Fund for Peace calculates the score according to various factors:
Mounting demographic pressures (Score 8.7/10). My take is that with one of the highest growth rates in the world, the youngest populations under the age of 15 years of age, and a political nutcase telling us we cannot develop our economy unless we breed like the rabbits this could be a time bomb ticking as we scramble for natural resources.
Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies (Score 9.3/10). No need to think to hard on this one. Hundreds of thousands in the North of Uganda have lived for decades in squalid camps and are still not fully resettled in their homes. They still live in fear of violence, suffer disease and struggle in poverty.
Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia (Score 8.3/10). Joseph Kony’s and the LRA have meted out vengeance on the people of Acholi for decades, is there an end in sight?
As for paranoia, we have to look westwards, where milk flows freely……… Only the paranoid and self isolated need those levels of protection.
Chronic and Sustained Human Flight (Score 6.0/10). Much better than before, but it arises from the point above.
Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines (Score 8.5/10). Look who gets all the parastatal jobs, look who gets all the top civil service jobs, look who gets all the state house scholarships, look who gets poorly secured loans from UDB and the Bank of Uganda. Look who gets bailed out when their lack of entrepreneurial skills threatens to crash their businesses.
Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline (Score 7.6/10). The government quotes GDP growth rates of 5-8% all the time, though this does not seem to trickle down to the villages. With rising oil prices, poor road infrastructure, a power generation deficit, high costs of doing business and falling remittances from the Ugandan diaspora, tough times are certainly ahead.
Criminalization and/or Delegitimization of the State (Score 8.3/10). We have witness the gradual but steady irrelevance of national institutions. When one has a land dispute, a disagreement with a bank, disagree with a magistrates ruling, the normal rules do not apply…..you head straight for state house, or beg on TV for the presidents intervention. The police, the courts etc are mere spectators.
Progressive Deterioration of Public Services (Score 7.9/10). This is not rocket science, look around you.
Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights (Score 8.1/10). If you are rich, powerful and well connected it next to impossible to go to jail, even if you steal millions of dollars from people dying of AIDS, or get the NSSF to buy swamp land at a premium price or use your lake side mansion as a landing point for smuggled goods. How ever, if you are a regular Joe, the high court can grant you bail as many times as it wants and you will still get rearrested, in the courts corridors if necessary. You may be kept in a safe house some where, even though they are illegal under the law. You might even get yourself charged with terrorism for trying to defraud a bank with your cheque book simply because your mentor does not get along with you know who.
Security Apparatus Operates as a "State Within a State" (Score 8.1/10). Again this is not rocket science. The security services are above the law and can pretty much do whatever they like with our civil liberties. A member of the public can be arrested by just about 5 or 6 different security outfits, no need for an arrest or a search warrant. He or she can be held in just about any location, for any length of time. One’s phone can be tapped at the stroke of a faceless officials pen. And if you are well connected you can have soldiers guard you, hound you’re your rivals, harass villagers off their land or just carry your suitcases.
Rise of Factionalized Elites (Score 7.8/10). The Global Aids Fund saga and now the NSSF debacle has put paid to the image of the NRM as unified and strong monolith. The scramble for power and the need to grow in stature and wealth has revealed factions amongst the ruling elite. Currently Amama Mbabazi is in the blue corner and Jim Muhwezi is in the red corner. The sycophants are falling in line and the rest of us look on wondering where our next meal will come from.
Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors (Score 7.8). Uganda has regionally perceived to be the proxy for the West (read the US and UK). It requires that Uganda to do the dirty work: be buffer against Arab Sudan, shake up the Congo and get at the minerals, fight terrorists(?). In return the West looks the other way as the issues above grow.
3 comments:
Very interesting blog!
I once did an assignment in my first year on failing states and of course I quoted Somalia but Uganda was not even in my mind at the time! Oh how young I was. I'm older now and the wiser for it. I feel so sad and yet what CAN we do? It seems the NRM is one man, not a party. We can't ask someone to shoot him like I thought we should do to Mugabe, it's just cruel. I repent. But can't he take $5mil and retire?
Carlo: I think we do not realise how far we have fallen. We are quite content to stick our heads in the sand like the proverbial ostrich and hope that the world around us is not quite so.
Note how many people will not dare make a comment on this topic.....
On the other hand your feeling of helplessness is something we should all take note of, because people who feel helpless, disenfranchised and have nothing to lose, are also people who are unpredictable.........
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